Housing Market Predictions 2027: What the Forecasts Say

Housing market predictions for 2027 are moving fast right now, and there is a reason. Mortgage rates just went back above 7%. Freddie Mac’s weekly average for a 30-year fixed loan was 7.28% on October 1, 2026, up from 6.34% a year earlier.

Two of the three big rate forecasts for 2027 were written before rates crossed 7%. So the forecasts and the market are not telling the same story right now.

This page does one job. It shows you who is predicting what for 2027, the date they said it, and what the data says today. We do not make a forecast of our own. Every number has its date and a link to the source, so you can check it yourself.

Last updated: October 7, 2026. Forecasters revise these numbers every month, so check the date next to each one.

Housing market predictions for 2027 at a glance

Those numbers do not agree with each other, and that is the point. The sections below show each one in full.

Where the housing market stands now

Start with what has already happened. These are the latest official readings as of October 7, 2026. Most housing data runs one to two months behind, so the period matters as much as the number.

Read on October 7, 2026. The Census figures are survey estimates, and the “give or take” is the margin of error Census publishes with them. The Case-Shiller index is now published as the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index. Parts of the release still use the older CoreLogic name for the same series.

Here is the short version. Borrowing costs almost a full point more than it did a year ago. Sales are slow. There are more homes for sale than at any time in years. The National Association of Realtors says the 4.9-month supply in August was the highest in over ten years.

Prices are still up, but barely. The FHFA index is up 2.6% and Case-Shiller is up 1.9%. S&P Dow Jones Indices points out that consumer prices rose 3.4% over the same 12 months, so home values fell after inflation for the 14th month in a row.

It also depends a lot on where you live. In the July Case-Shiller data, Chicago was up 6.9% and New York was up 5.8%. Seattle was down 1.6%, Las Vegas was down 1.3% and Denver was down 1.1%.

One more thing changed this fall. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate on September 16, 2026, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, and said inflation “remains elevated.” Its officials’ median projection now has that rate at 4.1% at the end of 2027. In June, the same projection was 3.6%. You can see both in the Fed’s September 2026 projection table.

What forecasters expect for 2027

These are the 2027 forecasts we could read on each forecaster’s own page on October 7, 2026. We quote their numbers as published. We do not average them, because they measure different things and were made on different days.

Read on October 7, 2026. Each forecaster uses its own price index and its own way of counting sales, so the rows are not a like-for-like comparison. NAHB counts single-family homes only.

Where the forecasts agree

The three that publish a price forecast all expect home prices to rise only a little. The projected gains are 0.5%, 1.0% and 1.4%, each on a different index and a slightly different time frame. None of the three projects a national drop on its price index.

All three that forecast sales expect more homes to sell in 2027 than in 2026. Fannie Mae has existing-home sales up 3.8%. The MBA and NAHB both show a higher number for 2027 than for 2026.

Where the forecasts disagree

Mortgage rates are the big split. Fannie Mae and the MBA both land near 6.7% for 2027. NAHB, which published two weeks later, has 7.03%. Today’s rate of 7.28% is above all three.

Timing explains part of it. Fannie Mae built its rate forecast on rates from August 31, 2026, when the Freddie Mac average was near 6.7%. The weekly average went above 7% in the September 24 survey. A forecast is a snapshot, and two of these were taken before the picture changed.

Prices are a smaller split, but look closely at the MBA row. Its FHFA index forecast is up 0.5%, yet its median existing-home price for 2027 is $418,000, which is below its $424,000 figure for 2026. An index and a median can move in different directions because the median depends on which homes happen to sell.

Home building is another gap. Fannie Mae projects 1.327 million housing starts in 2027. The MBA projects 1.269 million and NAHB projects 1.270 million. All three are below their own 2026 figures.

Who has not published a 2027 number yet

Several well-known forecasters had no 2027 forecast on their own pages when we checked on October 7, 2026. We are not going to carry a 2026 number forward and call it a 2027 prediction.

The National Association of Realtors’ latest posted outlook is its April 2026 forecast, which has no 2027 figures. Realtor.com’s research site still lists its 2026 housing forecast as the current one. Redfin has no 2027 predictions posted. Freddie Mac’s research page shows its last market outlook as January 2025. We could not find a readable public 2027 housing forecast from Goldman Sachs or other banks, so none is listed here.

When any of them posts a 2027 forecast, it will be added to the table.

Will the housing market crash in 2027?

None of the forecasts above projects a national crash. The three price forecasts we could read show gains of 0.5%, 1.0% and 1.4%. The one number that points down is the MBA’s median existing-home price, which it has at $418,000 for 2027 against $424,000 for 2026. A forecast is not a guarantee, and these get revised monthly.

Here is what the current data says on the things people usually point to.

Foreclosures are rising from a low base. ATTOM counted 40,277 properties with a foreclosure filing in August 2026, up 13% from a year earlier. Bank repossessions were 5,794, up 42%. ATTOM’s CEO said in the same report that overall foreclosure volumes are still well below historical norms.

Inventory is building. The 4.9-month supply NAR reported for August is its highest in over ten years. Realtor.com says 20.8% of listings had a price cut in September 2026, the highest share for any month since October 2022.

Some metros are already falling. Seattle, Las Vegas and Denver were down from a year earlier in the July Case-Shiller data. Zillow’s forecast file shows small declines for Dallas (down 0.3%) and Houston (down 0.2%) through August 2027, while it has New York up 3.5% and Chicago up 3.1%.

So the national forecasts say flat to slightly up, and the local picture varies a lot. Check your own metro before you read anything into a national number.

What the 2027 outlook means for you

Nobody can tell you where rates or prices will be next year, including the people in the table. What you can do is run your own numbers under a few different rates and see which ones you can live with.

If you are buying

The rate matters more to your payment than a 1% move in price. Here is an illustration on a $400,000 loan with a 30-year fixed rate. It covers principal and interest only. Taxes, insurance and mortgage insurance are extra.

Illustration only, not a quote. The math: payment = loan x monthly rate / (1 – (1 + monthly rate)^-360), where the monthly rate is the annual rate divided by 12. At 7.28% that is $400,000 x 0.0060667 / (1 – 1.0060667^-360) = $2,737. Rounded to the nearest dollar. Your own rate depends on your credit, down payment and lender.

The gap between 6.70% and 7.28% is about $156 a month, or about $1,869 a year, on that loan. If the payment at today’s rate does not fit your budget, a forecast of lower rates does not fix that. If it does fit, a lower rate later is a bonus you could capture by refinancing.

NAR’s chief economist says the larger supply of homes is giving buyers more room to negotiate. NAR also says homes took a median of 31 days to sell in August. If you are just starting, our first-time home buying guide walks through the steps, and it helps to get pre-approved before you shop so you know your real rate.

More 9 ways to get money for a down payment

If you are selling

You are competing with more listings than last year. NAR counted 1.62 million existing homes for sale in August 2026, up 5.9%. Realtor.com counted about 1.16 million active listings in September, up 5.4%.

Price cuts are common. About one in five listings on Realtor.com took one in September. That does not mean prices are falling nationally, since the median existing-home price was still up 1.6% in August. It means a home priced above the local market can sit.

The forecasts in the table point to slightly more sales in 2027 and prices that are roughly flat to slightly higher. None of them tells you whether your street will do better or worse than that. Recent sales near you are a better guide than any national number. If you are weighing how to list, here are ways to sell your house online.

If you own and are thinking about refinancing or tapping equity

Refinancing only lowers your payment if the new rate is below the one you have. With the average at 7.28%, that rules out most people who bought or refinanced when rates were lower. Compare your current rate with a real quote, then add the closing costs, before you decide anything.

The forecasters do not agree on how much refinancing happens next year. The MBA projects $634 billion in refinance loans in 2027, down from $700 billion in 2026. Fannie Mae projects $802 billion, up from $695 billion. That is a wide gap, and it comes down to their different rate paths.

If you want cash from your home without giving up a low first-mortgage rate, a second loan leaves that mortgage alone. HELOC rates usually follow the prime rate, which follows the Fed. NAHB’s forecast has the prime rate averaging 7.23% in 2027, up from 6.84% in 2026. If that holds, a variable-rate line costs more next year, not less.

You can compare lenders in our guide to the best HELOC lenders, or see HELOC alternatives if you do not want a monthly payment. The home equity calculator shows roughly how much you could access.

If you are renting

Rent data is mixed, and it depends on who is counting. Zillow says the typical U.S. rent was $1,932 in September 2026, up 2.7% from a year earlier, and it expects apartment rents to be up 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2026. Realtor.com’s research page shows a median rent of $1,699 for August 2026, down 0.9% from a year earlier. The two track different sets of listings.

If you are deciding between renting and buying, compare the full monthly cost of owning, including taxes, insurance and repairs, with your rent. Zillow puts the principal and interest on a typical home at $1,922 a month with 20% down, which is 6.7% higher than a year ago. Our guide to renting versus buying covers the trade-offs.

If you want to invest in real estate without buying a home, see our list of the best real estate investing apps.

What could change the outlook

These are the risks the forecasters and data providers name themselves.

Inflation and energy prices. Zillow says the run-up in energy prices and inflation over the summer reshaped its outlook. It started 2026 expecting mortgage rates of 6.07% in the fourth quarter. S&P Dow Jones Indices notes that energy prices were up 14.7% in the year to July while core inflation was 2.5%.

The Fed. Fed officials moved their median rate projection for the end of 2027 from 3.6% in June to 4.1% in September. The individual projections for 2027 range from 3.1% to 4.4%, so the officials do not agree either. The next meetings are October 27 to 28 and December 8 to 9, 2026, and new projections come out in December.

Geopolitics. The Fed’s September statement says uncertainty “remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments.” Realtor.com’s economists say the open question is whether the inflation, geopolitical and mortgage rate picture still looks this rough in early 2027, when families start making plans for spring.

Jobs. NAR’s chief economist says job creation and wage growth are what drive housing demand. Realtor.com’s economists called the September 2026 jobs report a clear miss, with payrolls up 29,000.

Sellers pulling back. Zillow notes that most sellers are also buyers, so high rates keep some of them from listing. In its view that limits how far prices can fall, because inventory growth slows when sellers stay put.

When these numbers update

Forecasts are revised monthly, and the data they are built on comes out on a set schedule. These are the next dates we know of. We refresh this page after the monthly forecasts come out.

Dates are from each source’s own release calendar, read October 7, 2026: NAR, Census Bureau, FHFA, Federal Reserve and Zillow.

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